Podcasts
KBS REIT I - by Jeff Marchiorlatti
Jeff Marchiorlatti is the Senior Regional Vice President for KBS Capital Markets Group responsible for the Midwest region (IN, MI, Ohio). Jeff has been in the financial services industry for the last 11 years. He spent six years with MetLife Investors responsible for their variable annuity sales in the Midwest region. He then spent time at SunLife Financial in a similar position before joining KBS Capital Markets Group. Jeff began his career as a financial advisor with UBS Financial Services.
He is a graduate of the University of California Los Angeles with a bachelor’s degree in history and a minor in business and administration. He currently resides in the Indianapolis area with his wife and daughter.
KBS REIT I Podcast - December 17, 2009
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State of the Market - by Charles B. Carlson
Charles B. Carlson has over 25 years of investment experience. Chuck, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), holds an undergraduate degree in journalism from Northwestern University and an MBA from the University of Chicago. He is the editor of the DRIP Investor newsletter and is a contributing editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, both published by Horizon Publishing Co.
Chuck is the author of eight books, including the best-selling Buying Stocks Without A Broker (McGraw-Hill), No-Load Stocks (McGraw-Hill), Eight Steps to Seven Figures (Doubleday), The Smart Investor's Survival Guide (Random House) and Winning With The Dow's Losers (Harper/Collins). His comments have appeared in such newspapers and magazines as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Newsweek, U.S. News & World Report, The Washington Post, Money, Business Week, Forbes, Barron's, and Kiplinger's Personal Finance. Chuck also appears frequently on CNN, CNBC, and NBC in programs including The Today Show, and on Business Radio Network.
"State of the Market" Update - August 28, 2009
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"State of the Market" Update - March 19, 2009
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"State of the Market" Update - November 13, 2008
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Scannell Wealth Report, March 1, 2010
Three months ago, on December 1, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 1,108. Last week it closed at 1,104. After three months, the net movement in the stock market was just 4 points. What does that tell us about investing?....
Scannell Wealth Report, February 22, 2010
The U.S. stock market has had several "mini corrections" since the March 9, 2009 low and last week's strong performance has some analysts saying the recent 9% drop in the S&P 500 from its mid-January high may have run its course, according to the Associated Press...
Scannell Wealth Report, February 16, 2010
The Reuters University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index showed that consumer confidence was down slightly from January ... However, a 2002 study by Meir Statman and Kenneth Fisher found that, "Low consumer confidence is followed by high stock returns more often than it is followed by low stock returns..."
Scannell Wealth Report, February 8, 2010
A mixed employment report for January; continued budget deficit issues in Europe; monetary tightening in China; and a growing sense that the worldwide economy might be running on government stimulus fumes all contributed to worldwide jitters during the past few weeks. However, an increase in investor anxiety helped send the value of the U.S. dollar up, up and away...
Scannell Wealth Report, February 1, 2010
Let's recap some of the good news last week ...
The Commerce Department said the economy grew in the fourth quarter at its fastest pace in more than six years ... Sounds pretty good, doesn't it? So, how does the market respond? ...
Scannell Wealth Report, January 25, 2010
After the dramatic bull run over the last 10 months, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction in the markets. This correction could be caused by a wide variety of reasons, but here are three broad categories that bear watching, according to the January 23, 2010 New York Times article...
Scannell Wealth Report, January 19, 2010
Back in early March 2009, there was a palpable fear in the markets. Our banking system was on the verge of collapse, unemployment was skyrocketing, and the stock market was touching 12-year lows. But on March 10, the collective psychology changed, the market turned around, and since then we've witnessed one of the greatest short-term bull markets in history....
Scannell Wealth Report, January 11, 2010
The S&P 500 index rose every day last week and finished with a 2.7% gain. This gain came despite a disappointing jobs report, which showed another 85,000 jobs were lost in December.
Scannell Wealth Report, December 21, 2009
Major fluctuations in the stock market tend to grab the headlines, but there's something else investors should keep their eye on too - the value of the U.S. dollar...
Scannell Wealth Report, December 14, 2009
As it relates to predicting holiday sales, it turns out that, 'Christmas tree sales can be a good gauge of the strength of the holiday-shopping season,' according to The Wall Street Journal...
Scannell Wealth Report, November 17, 2009
Can Sir Isaac Newton's first law of motion help explain the continuing surge in the stock market? Well, some unknown "external force" compelled the stock market to change its downward spiral in early March and since then, it's been up, up, and away...
Scannell Wealth Report, November 9, 2009
"There is a fine line between having the conviction to stick to an investment position that is temporarily going against you versus being flexible enough to change your mind as the situation changes. Knowing how to discern that line is an important part of successful investing."
"Before you make an investment, here are three things you should know:..."
Scannell Wealth Report, November 2, 2009
Proponents of stimulus spending say it's doing exactly what it should do - it's helping the economy grow. Critics say we're just delaying another inevitable deep economic adjustment and it's better to take our medicine now than suffer death by a thousand cuts. Have we solved the problems in our economy or just postponed them?...
Scannell Wealth Report, October 26, 2009
We are about one-third of the way into the quaterly earnings season and a remarkable 78% of the S&P 500 companies have delivered a positive earnings surprise...
Scannell Wealth Report, October 19, 2009
The DJIA rose above 10,000 last week. The first time it rose above 10,000 was in March 1999. A lot has changed in those ten years. Let's look at a few differences between 1999 and today...
Scannell Wealth Report, October 12, 2009
Gold prices hit an all-time high last week driven by a weak dollar and concerns over potential inflationary pressure, according to CNBC. Many people consider gold to be a good inflation hedge. Is it true? Let's look at some examples...
Scannell Wealth Report, October 5, 2009
As we enter the home stretch for 2009, let's review what transpired in the financial markets over the past three months...Stock Market Rally Continued...Interest Rates Dropped...Value Of The Dollar Declined...
Scannell Wealth Report, September 28, 2009
Since we humans are, well, human, then the markets may behave in a way that reflects human behavior and that can get quite messy.
Knowing this helps us remain aware and on guard for extreme movements in the markets.
We can't guarantee that we'll always be on the "right" side of extreme market movements, but you can be confident that we will sure try...
Scannell Wealth Report, September 21, 2009
We will need the benefit of history to know if last week's piercing of 20% above the 200-day moving average foreshadows a new, long-term secular bull market. However, we have enough history to know the current rally is very impressive indeed.
Scannell Wealth Report, September 14, 2009
Who's right, stock market investors or bond investors?
The 10-year Treasury dipped back down last week from its June high of nearly 4.0% Is the bond market now foreshadowing another flight to safety? Or is it suggesting that the Goldilicks economy is back and economic activity is "just right?"
Scannell Wealth Report, September 8, 2009
Ten years ago, a Big Mac cost $2.43, according to the Economist. Today, it costs $3.57. That's a 47% increase. Do you think the taste of a Big Mac improved by that much over the past decade? If so, then maybe this wasn't a lost decade after all.
Scannell Wealth Report, August 31, 2009
As much as we would like to dust off our crystal ball and peer into it for prescience, we know that predicting the future is not an effective investment strategy. However, thinking about possible scenarios, developing plans and being ready to adjust course as situations unfold is appropriate.
Scannell Wealth Report, August 24, 2009
Despite the mixed real estate news, the market viewed it as positive and a strong rally last Friday sent the S&P 500 index to a new 2009 high.
If the real estate market continues to improve and home prices start to rise, that could help support an even healthier stock market down the road...
Scannell Wealth Report, August 10, 2009
The economy is showing signs of revival. However, in order for this to continue, consumers need to start spending.
Responsible spending versus reckless spending will be key for favorable stock prices and for the future of our country...
Scannell Wealth Report, August 3, 2009
For the five months ending last Friday, the S&P 500 had its best performance streak since The Great Depression year of 1938, according to Reuters.
However, some factors including insider trading suggest that corporate insiders are less sanguine about the future of this rally.
Only time will tell if it continues into the fall or rolls over into a new leg down. Either way, we're doing our best to help you preserve capital and generate profits as appropriate...
Scannell Wealth Report, July 27, 2009
As of last week, the bulls were stampeding over the bears. Of course, that could change in an instant.
Whether you are bullish or bearish, there's plenty of ammo in each camp to support your view...
Scannell Wealth Report, July 20, 2009
The second quarter earnings season started just like the Fourth of July - with a bang.
Going forward investors will keep a close eye on the rest of the earnings reports looking for any sign that profits are being generated by revenue growth instead of relying on cost cutting. As you know, you can't cost cut your way to 15% profit growth each year, so, eventually, we'll need to see solid revenue growth before investors will feel confident that we're out of the woods...
Scannell Wealth Report, July 13, 2009
At SWMG, we can say with some confidence that the economic recovery will likely be inconsistent. One day we may receive data that says the economy looks great, the next day another report might show just the opposite.
This tug-of-war between conflicting data will test the patience of investors and we will do our best to pass that test with an A+...
Scannell Wealth Report, July 6, 2009
Now that we've passed the halfway mark in 2009, let's review what transpired in the financial markets...Stock Markets Soar...Credit Markets Diverged...Commodities Were Mixed...The Dollar Finally Cracked - A Bit...
Scannell Wealth Report, June 29, 2009
Faith that the economy will get significantly better in the near future will soon need to be replaced by the proof that it is getting better or else we may end up with more market volatility.
Scannell Wealth Report, June 22, 2009
Popular wisdom about life says, "It's the journey, not the destination." In successful long-term investing, it's just the opposite. The financial markets contain short-term traders and long-term traders.
Interestingly, traders and investors work synergistically in order to create opportunities for the other to make profits. Here's how...
Scannell Wealth Report, June 15, 2009
The stock market has been on a very nice run over the past three months and there's a divergence of opinion on what's behind it.
Most analysts seem to agree on one point - we're out of the "end of the financial system" doomsday scenario. That alone could be a major reason for the big jump in equity prices since the March 9 low. From there, opinions vary...
Scannell Wealth Report, June 8, 2009
On June 12, 2007, news broke that a 10-month old Bear Stearns hedge fund that speculated in mortgage-backed securities was melting down. The fund used leverage and bet heavily on bonds tied to subprime mortgages. As the market for subprime mortgages began to implode in early 2007, so did the Bear Stearns fund. This was the first major piece of information that all was not well in the land of finance. This week marks the two-year annniversary of the financial meltdown...
Scannell Wealth Report, June 1, 2009
How do you spell higher stock market prices?
J-O-B-S!
We all know that stock prices generally reflect the underlying growth of earnings, but companies cannot grow much unless consumers have jobs that allow them to spend money on stuff created and delivered by companies. So, how do we stand on the metric of job creation? Unfortunately, it's ugly...
Scannell Wealth Report, May 26, 2009
One key to an economic recovery is a thawing of the credit freeze. Let's look at three inicators that suggest we're making some progress in this area.
First, the LIBOR is coming down...
Second, the 3-month TED Spread is coming down too.
Third, junk bond yields have come down significantly in recent months...
Scannell Wealth Report, May 18, 2009
Warren Buffett has said his favorite holding period is forever. Does he follow his own advice? Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway recently posted its worst quarterly loss in more than 20 years and a big chunk of that was due to what Buffett called a "major mistake." Less than a year ago, with oil prices nearing their all-time high, Buffett dramatically upped his stake in oil giant ConocoPhillips and became its largest shareholder. Unfortunately, his timing was horrible. ConocoPhillips stock subsequently plunged along with the price of oil and as of last Friday, the stock was down about 50% from its high of last summer, according to Yahoo! Finance.
Scannell Wealth Report, May 11, 2009
Would you agree that the stock market has been volatile in the last six months?
As you may have guessed, that's a bit of a trick question. Most people would say that, yes, the stock market has been very volatile since early November 2008. For example, just from November 7, 2008 to November 20, 2008, the S&P 500 index dropped 19%. It then rallied 24% by January 6, 2009. But, that was just a tease...
Scannell Wealth Report, May 4, 2009
Set the bar low and then step over it. That idea helps explain why the S&P 500 index has jumped 30% since its March 9 low, according to Barron's Magazine.
By early March, investors were quite pessimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings and the economy. In effect, the bar was quite low in terms of near-term expectations. Over the following few weeks, earnings and economic reports came in weak, but they were "less bad" than expected. Relieved investors took this "less bad" as a sign that perhaps the worst is over so they started dipping their toes back in the investing waters and stocks rose...
Scannell Wealth Report, April 27, 2009
The government's ability to "stick the landing" will go a long way toward determining how well the economy - and, by extension, the stock market - will fare over the coming years.
If you're a fan of gymnastics, you're familiar with the concept of "sticking the landing." Whether it's coming off the vault, the beam, or the bars, gymnasts hope to make that picture perfect landing with a big smile and arms outstretched. Taking a step forward on the landing, a step backward, or, worse yet, falling on your you know what, leads to a dreaded deduction and a disappointing finish...
Scannell Wealth Report, April 20, 2009
"Time heals all wounds" is a well-meaning cliche and, with a little tweaking, it can apply to how you deal with losses in the financial markets.
This popular quote implies that the simple passage of time has a healing quality. In reality, the healing quality comes from what you do during the passage of time. Likewise, investors who have lost money in the financial markets may benefit from the passage of time if they follow a few simple ideas...
Scannell Wealth Report, April 13, 2009
Does August 12, 1982, mean anything to you?
On that day, the S&P 500 index closed at 102, which was about 9% lower than where it closed 10 years earlier, according to data from Yahoo! Finance. To repeat a popular phrase, it was a "lost decade." However, 10 years later, on August 12, 1992, it was a completely different story...
Scannell Wealth Report, March 30, 2009
Sometimes, less bad is actually good.
Investors are clinging to any signs of hope that the economy, if not actually turning the corner, at least has the corner in view now. A slew of economic reports released last week hinted at some possible good news...
Scannell Wealth Report, March 23, 2009
So now we know where money comes from.
The Federal Reserve elevated this financial crisis to an entirely new dimension last week by announcing several initiatives that would expand its balance sheet by more than $1 trillion. Effectively, they've decided to fire up the printing presses and create money where there once was none...
Scannell Wealth Report, March 16, 2009
It's about time.
Last week, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, staged its third-largest weekly gain since World War II, according to Reuters. The gain was partially attributed to the following good news...
Scannell Wealth Report, March 9, 2009
As it relates to the financial markets, essentially the only positive thing we can say about last week is that it ended.
The relentless decline in the stock market continued as investors focused on declining earnings, declining jobs, and lingering unhappiness with some of the administration's proposed economic plans. Talk of limiting some deductions for wealthy taxpayers and a cap-and-trade system on greenhouse gas emissions, in particular, seemed to spook investors...
Scannell Wealth Report, March 2, 2009
"History does not repeat itself exactly, but behavior does," according to legendary Wall Street veteran Bob Farrell. Institutional Investor magazine ranked Farrell the number one market analyst for 16 years.
Elaborating on Farrell's quote, the economy is going through another one of its periodic recessions, but this recession is not exactly the same as the last few...
Scannell Wealth Report, February 25, 2009
Despite the broad market averages approaching their recent bear market lows, there's some surprising strength below the surface.
Last Tuesday, the S&P 500 index closed within about 5% of its November 20, 2008, bear market low, according to data from Yahoo! Finance. Yet, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group, as of last Tuesday, the average stock in the S&P 500 was up about 14% from November 20, 2008...
Scannell Wealth Report, February 17, 2009
Thanks a trillion, Secretary Geithner.
After weeks of heightened anticipation, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner unveiled the administration's comprehensive plan to restore confidence in the financial markets. Unfortunately, it landed with a big ol' thud...
Scannell Wealth Report, February 12, 2009
We've moved from "drill, baby, drill" to "spend, baby, spend."
As consumers have reduced their spending, the government is stepping in to fill the breach. The idea is that when the economy experiences one of its periodic contractions, it's the government's job to step up to the plate and become the spender of last resort...
Scannell Wealth Report, February 2, 2009
Our economy has moved from an inflationary environment to a deflationary environment in a remarkably short period. Is that good or bad?
Let's go back to July of last year...
Scannell Wealth Report, January 26, 2009
The government is furiously at work trying to find the right balance between managing the economy from Washington and letting capitalism run its course.
Most economists agree that government intervention to help stem the severe recession is a necessary evil. The big question is, "How much?"
Scannell Wealth Report, January 20, 2009
Despite another harrowing decline in the banking sector last week, the overall stock market has been holding up rather well, considering the circumstances.
Many analysts thought the worst of the banking crisis was behind us, but Citigroup and Bank of America reminded us last week that all is not well in the land of lending. Both firms reported earnings last week that were nothing short of ugly...
Scannell Wealth Report, January 12, 2009
While stock markets are down, there may be one market where you can actually make some money.
Collapsing real estate prices helped lead us into the current recession and the government realizes that stabilizing real estate prices may be one key to pulling us out of the recession. Accordingly, the government is doing what it can to influence mortgage rates and help them move lower...
Scannell Wealth Report, January 5, 2009
With 2008 in the history books, we'll use this week's commentary to review some of the key stories over the past year. As you well know, it was not one of the market's finest performances.