Bellevue Perspectives

Monday Minute

More trade and tariff volatility ahead? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/china-implements-new-tariffs-on-us-products-state-media-says.html Article on targeted products: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/global-trade-war-ramps-up-as-us-tariffs-on-china-kick-in.html July has been good for markets over the past 10 years…                         Markets were down a bit after the trade news, but rebounded on the jobs report. 36,000 jobs added. 3rd best ...

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The 4% Rule

Most financial advisors will recommend the 4% withdrawal rule to their retirement clients, which simply states retirees can take out 4% of their portfolio balance out each year and not run out of money.  This sounds like a simple formula and rule and it is backed by research, but not so fast.  In our experience, ...

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Monday Minute

Trump pushes Allies to end Iran oil imports.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-26/u-s-is-said-to-press-allies-to-end-iran-oil-imports-by-nov-4 ISM Manufacturing shows strength amid slower deliveries, jumps 1.5 points in June to 60.2.  This matched the second highest reading since June of ’04 as factory activity strengthened.   https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/ism-manufacturing-construction-spending.html

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Monday Minute

Trump announces an additional $200b of tariffs against China last week.  Equity markets respond unfavorably.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-trump/trump-threatens-to-hit-china-with-new-tariffs-on-200-billion-in-goods-idUSKBN1JE2ZQ The Federal Reserve’s bank assessment comes back positive, showing sufficient strength and capital to survive the next economic downturn.  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/business/fed-stress-tests-banks.html

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Monday Minute

President Trump and Kim Jong Un conclude their initial summit, with what looks like a positive outcome for global peace.  Denuclearization and the end of U.S./South Korea military exercises are on the table.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/trump-offers-to-end-korea-war-games-after-historic-kim-summit-idUSKBN1J821H The Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark rate by .25% and indicates another two more hikes in 2018, bringing the total to ...

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Monday Minute

Job openings now outnumber unemployed.  First time since the DOL started tracking the ratio in 2000.  http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-job-openings-workers-20180605-story.html Big week for headline news – G-7 meeting results, Trump/Kim Jong Un summit, and the Federal Reserve meeting begins.  Initial news form the G-7 was not positive. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/09/world/americas/donald-trump-g7-nafta.html  We hope for a more positive outcome from the summit ...

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Monday Minute

U.S. consumer spending jumps in April and unemployment applications drop as the economy continues strength.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-consumer-spending-accelerates-job-market-strengthening-idUSKCN1IW1NX Trump brings steel and aluminum tariffs back in play and demands better trade policies out of the EU, Canada, and Mexico.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/trump-tell-allies-to-fix-trade-after-u-s-tariffs-strike-idUSKCN1IX478

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Monday Minute

The Supreme Court paved the way for individual states to legalize sports betting.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/marcedelman/2018/05/16/explaining-the-supreme-courts-recent-sports-betting-decision/#2038e4ed537c China trade wars on hold and US merger activity start the week off strong as stocks rally.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-rallies-on-trade-war-truce-28-billion-in-mergers-idUSKCN1IM14L The Russell 2000 hits record high as investors have focused on domestic growth and trading around possible long-term tariff issues.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russell-2000-hits-record-in-early-trading-2018-05-21  

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HighTower Bellevue is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC.

This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors.

All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.

This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

about the authors

Lars Knudsen  

is a Managing Director, Partner at HighTower Bellevue.

Lars founded Triad Wealth Stewardship, now known as HighTower Bellevue, to deliver a personalized, custom approach to financial planning and family wealth stewardship to clients.  He leads the team with over 30 years of experience.   

Dan Stober  

is a Managing Director, Partner at HighTower Bellevue.

Dan brings over two decades of knowledge in equity markets, manager research and selection, as well as portfolio construction to the team.  He values the multi-leveled relationships he shares with clients and partners to help them achieve their financial goals.  

Randy Williams-Gurian, CMFC®, CRPC®  

is the Wealth Manager at HighTower Bellevue.

Randy helps drive client success based on four critical elements: estate planning, tax planning, risk management and insurance.  His belief that clients want more from a financial advisor drives him to consult in 401(k) and personal financial plans, creating an integrated & comprehensive approach.

Michael Policar   Michael Policar is a Wealth Manager at HighTower Bellevue. Michael brings a passion for the financial markets and over 6 years of wealth management experience to the team. For Michael, the combination of a value investing philosophy and continuous studies of behavioral psychology, financial advice was not a career choice, it was a calling.

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