Bellevue Perspectives

Monday Minute

Senate panel approves the new Tax Bill, will go to full vote. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/u-s-republican-tax-plan-clears-hurdle-in-senate-fight-erupts-over-spending-idUSKBN1DS197 Markets move higher the beginning of last week despite concerns over another N. Korean missile test.  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/28/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test.html Upward real GDP revision for Q3 beats expectations.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-gdp/u-s-third-quarter-economic-growth-fastest-in-three-years-idUSKBN1DT1W7 OPEC agrees to extend oil production cuts through 2018, providing much needed support to oil stocks ...

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Monday Minute

Markets continue strength last week on strong corporate earnings and prospects of tax reform after the  House of Representatives passed its tax reform bill.  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/u-s-house-of-representatives-approves-tax-overhaul-fight-shifts-to-senate-idUSKBN1DG1G3 Janet Yellen makes it official that her term on the Federal Reserve is over in February when her term as Chair expires.  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/yellen-to-leave-fed-board-once-successor-powell-sworn-in-idUSKBN1DK2CM October existing home sales beat estimates, indicating ...

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Monday Minute

Commodity issues also saw pressure on some disappointing Chinese economic data and a lowered demand forecast from the IEA, which weighed on crude oil and the energy sector. (Schwab) Markets rebound mid-week on strong corportate earnings and by news that the House of Representatives passed its tax reform bill.  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/u-s-house-of-representatives-approves-tax-overhaul-fight-shifts-to-senate-idUSKBN1DG1G3 After 8 years of relative ...

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Monday Minute

GE cuts its profit forecast and dividend in half.  Some might believe they are a proxy for the US economy.  We disagree and think it’s company specific.  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-review/ge-to-shrink-investors-worry-it-will-be-less-profitable-idUSKBN1DD0H3 Tax policy remains front and center for investors.  Given the uncertainty around what the final package will look like and when it will happen, the markets will ...

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Monday Minute

- Republicans issue new tax plan, and are already tweaking it to gain support. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/house-begins-revising-republican-tax-bill-to-quell-dissent-idUSKBN1D6180   -Oil finally catches a bid, moves to two year high. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/06/oil-hits-two-year-high-and-the-path-of-least-resistance-is-higher.html   -Our hearts and prayers go out to Texas, again. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/06/gunman-kills-26-in-rural-texas-church-during-sunday-service.html   -When market conditions seem to be perfect, it’s time to take precautions. Fixed income/cash, alternatives, and ...

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Monday Minute

Credit Suisse thinks we are nowhere near the end of the cycle.  Based off key metrics prior to the previous six recessions compared to where we are today, they have good reason.  (Credit Suisse) Markets trade down midweek as interest rates move higher, despite 73% of reported Q3 earnings coming in with positive results.  (TheStreet.com) ...

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Monday Minute

Stocks began last week on a positive note with an unexpected jump in regional manufacturing activity and upbeat Chinese economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 23,000 for the first time, up from the March 2009 low of 6,626. Bids for Amazon’s HQ2 were due on Friday the 20th.  Given our congestion problem in ...

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Behavioral Finance - Does Irrational human behavior override logical decisions?

Some of you might have heard that Professor Richard Thaler, who teaches at University of Chicago Booth School of Business, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science October, 2017. The Nobel committee, announcing the award in Stockholm, said it was honoring Professor Thaler for his pioneering work in Behavioral Finance. What is behavioral ...

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