Stock Selection


Duncker Streett & Co. builds portfolios of stock that are diversified across economic sectors, style (growth and value) and market capitalization. Aggressive growth (such as momentum, early stage, or high P/E stocks) and deep value (such as commodity or turn-arounds), however, are generally avoided.

The process begins with a qualitative assessment of a company that appears to have attractive growth prospects. Factors such as management, business plan, industry position and product lines are evaluated. Strategic dynamics between the company and its competitors, suppliers and customers are considered, as well as secular and cyclical trends within the industry. Once a buy candidate has been identified, quantitative tests are applied to determine if a security is attractively priced. Traditional fundamental measures of valuation, profitability and growth are examined. A sophisticated cash flow return on investment (CFROI) and asset growth analysis is undertaken to investigate true corporate performance and assess the fair value of the stock. Companies that are spearheading growing industries with strong revenue growth and a high and rising CFROI are favored.

Securities are often sold, fundamentals deteriorate, a holding becomes disproportionately large, valuation reaches historical highs, or when a more attractive alternative is identified. Although holding periods may vary widely, and stocks that perform well are often held for long periods of time, we believe it is sometimes necessary to wait three to four years to realize the full potential of our initial investment thesis. Technical sell indicators may also be used. Capital gain considerations play an important role in the selling process for taxable portfolios. Average annual portfolio turnover is roughly 25%.

Asset allocation and stock selection are determined by "top down/bottom up" analyses.

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Top Down Assessment


Goal:

Assess the factors that influence market behavior using the following considerations:

Economic Outlook

Growth vs. Value

Large Cap vs. Mid Cap

Sector Attractiveness

Momentum

Technical Indicators

Sentiment Indicators


Considerations