So much for “Trade wars are good and easy to win.” Trade talks between the U.S. and China are erratic and, so far, unproductive. Larry Kudlow may have revealed the tenor of the negotiations by saying, “The U.S. may never reach a trade deal with China.” His observation suggests that open-ended negotiations may last a […]
Back in June, we urged a more careful stance with respect to risk-taking. We discussed reducing exposure to the riskiest assets and increasing cash and short-term fixed income. We also suggested increased exposures to gold which proved to be prescient as the metals and miners have since jumped nicely. Nevertheless, the markets appeared to be […]
Surely there are better ways to spend a beautiful summer day than thinking about the markets and the economy. However, after an eventful last few weeks, I just had to dig-in and provide some context and observations. While it looks like the current US economic expansion will become the longest (and weakest) in history, we know […]
June is likely my favorite month. I try to make the best of each month but there is something to be said for the warm not too humid weather, the school year wrapping up, the graduations, the start of the summer and—my favorite day of the year—Father’s Day! Sweet June! Let’s hope that the markets feel […]
“Late Cycle” More Likely Than “Recession” While the economy is showing some signs of slowing, recession does not seem imminent. Recession anxiety is fueled by declines in economic indicators, such as industrial production and business credit. During the first quarter of 2019, industrial production fell from an annualized rate of 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent […]
Investor concerns about the resilience of the U.S. equity market abound, despite first-quarter returns that have exceeded most expectations for the entire year. Equity prices were supported by the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) projection of no more rate-hikes in 2019, progress in trade talks with China, and expectations for contained inflation with low-interest rates…yet many […]
And not because its spring (and just past St Patrick’s Day). The term “green-eye shades” refers to the more studious members of the capital markets—those who scour over accounting reports and “worse case scenarios,” namely the cadre of analysts in the bond market. Unlike their equity brethren, this lot is much less likely to be […]
As human beings, we often hang on to certain beliefs even when the facts prove us wrong. When it looks to us like something is true, we may believe that it is, and seek out other opinions and news articles that affirm our beliefs. It hurts our egos to be proven wrong, so we gather […]
For the last few years, investors enjoyed a long period of relative calm in the markets. However, in recent months volatility in the markets has begun to rear its head. This volatility can naturally be unnerving, but one must remember that volatility is, in fact, a normal part of the investing cycle. Those of us […]
In the fourth quarter of 2018, investor expectations seemed to shift quickly from a continuation of economic and profit growth – albeit at lower levels – to fear of a more dramatic slowdown. Widely publicized concerns about slower global growth, a trade war with China, and a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve culminated in […]
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